In a stunning twist of global politics, Donald Trump’s 'America First' agenda might be inadvertently fueling China’s rise to global dominance, according to a groundbreaking survey spanning 21 countries. One year into Trump’s second term, the world seems to agree on one thing: his policies are reshaping the global order—but not in the way he intended. And this is the part most people miss: while Trump’s rhetoric promises to 'Make America Great Again,' the data suggests it’s China that’s reaping the benefits.
Conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), this survey of nearly 26,000 respondents across Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa reveals a striking shift in global perceptions. But here’s where it gets controversial: under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. is no longer seen as the formidable superpower it once was. Instead, traditional adversaries fear it less, and allies—especially in Europe—feel increasingly alienated. For instance, most Europeans now doubt America’s reliability as an ally, with many even advocating for rearmament. Meanwhile, Russians view the EU as a greater adversary than the U.S., and Ukrainians are turning to Brussels, not Washington, for support.
The numbers are even more telling when it comes to China. A majority in nearly every surveyed country—from South Africa (83%) to the U.S. (54%)—expects China’s global influence to grow over the next decade. Is this a silent acknowledgment of China’s ascendancy, or a sign of America’s waning dominance? What’s more, this shift isn’t met with alarm; in fact, many nations, including South Africa, Russia, and Brazil, now see China as a necessary partner or ally. Even in the U.S., 40% view the EU as a partner, despite Trump’s anti-EU rhetoric.
But the decline of America’s global standing doesn’t stop there. In most countries, faith in Trump’s leadership has plummeted. Fewer people believe his re-election benefits U.S. citizens, their own nations, or global peace. Could this be the beginning of America’s retreat from the world stage? Meanwhile, the EU’s image is evolving, particularly in China, where 61% see the U.S. as a threat but only 19% feel the same about the EU. Yet, Europeans themselves are skeptical of their union’s ability to compete with global powers like the U.S. or China, with nearly half doubting the EU’s strength.
The survey’s authors—Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash—argue that Trump’s actions, from Venezuela to Greenland, suggest he prioritizes fear over love in global relations. But is this strategy sustainable, or is it accelerating America’s decline? They warn that Europe risks being marginalized unless its leaders adapt to this multipolar world. ‘Europeans see the old order is over,’ they write. ‘Leaders must now be both realistic and daring, finding ways not just to survive but to thrive as a global pole—or risk fading into obscurity.’
What do you think? Is Trump’s America First agenda backfiring on the global stage? Or is China’s rise inevitable, regardless of U.S. policy? Share your thoughts in the comments—this debate is far from over.
